Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 53.527952 59.391828 66.020434 74.154592 83.989833 95.663219 110.827712
2025-01-19 43.587910 50.640065 59.247303 70.796060 86.341641 107.295919 139.186993
2025-01-26 40.470793 48.695472 59.354749 74.755086 97.554198 132.296031 195.012886
2025-02-02 38.381924 47.486856 59.877045 78.943129 109.705995 162.570319 277.801080
2025-02-09 35.860178 45.255788 58.501740 79.874854 116.790432 187.057950 370.639811
2025-02-16 33.392096 42.767248 56.341220 79.063957 120.527315 206.687650 474.733341
2025-02-23 31.274031 40.542864 54.263043 77.959187 123.336447 225.621520 607.315974
2025-03-02 29.285172 38.320170 51.925731 76.011367 123.980491 239.883627 754.839018
2025-03-09 27.725050 36.605108 50.201302 74.862142 125.960595 258.821641 986.228238
2025-03-16 25.914213 34.381697 47.464761 71.516973 122.484319 260.843449 1130.076100
2025-03-23 25.539796 34.326823 48.238149 74.767871 134.619384 319.135757 2225.931647
2025-03-30 24.504610 33.164406 47.055393 74.085149 137.269421 347.655779 3608.290809
2025-04-06 23.312078 31.729478 45.377945 72.384130 137.446073 369.451113 6179.459946
2025-04-13 21.968990 29.989489 43.067704 69.174403 133.090119 369.802297 8749.645491
2025-04-20 21.827362 30.169151 44.100820 72.990817 148.972051 486.067499 NaN
2025-04-27 21.696795 30.351283 45.147065 77.021727 167.397321 664.707581 NaN
2025-05-04 21.152402 29.805733 44.812143 77.917826 176.471177 811.338541 NaN
2025-05-11 20.443001 28.940797 43.813688 77.137955 179.636785 920.728164 NaN
2025-05-18 19.752490 28.073416 42.750578 76.075166 181.534614 1031.129286 NaN
2025-05-25 19.015931 27.093828 41.412819 74.200551 179.893389 1097.132292 NaN
2025-06-01 18.414061 26.321438 40.428898 73.094027 181.015621 1221.482763 NaN
2025-06-08 17.612466 25.172836 38.658227 69.871051 172.906641 1162.538947 NaN
2025-06-15 17.547166 25.302721 39.383892 73.003242 192.112935 1813.043482 NaN